Written by Derek Ortt on February 15, 2005 Overall, track forecasts for Hurricane Cindy were very poor, with errors well above the 10-year mean. The forecast errors for the periods less than or equal to 36 hours were so poor, that they rivaled the errors produced by CLIPER, indicating little skill. The main reason for these large errors was the inability to forecast a reformation of the center about 24 hours after formation. The forecasts indicated a track toward Texas, while the center reformed to the NE of the center that was being tracked. After the reformation of the center, the forecasts were better than the long-term mean, suggesting that the reason for the error is mainly due to the center reformation. Intensity forecasts were near the long-term mean until the 72 hour period. The reason for this was the hurricane moved onshore about 24 hours before the lone 2 verifying 72-hour forecasts indicated it would. However, after the reformation, intensity forecasts indicated that Cindy would remain just shy of hurricane status. The Hurricane Warning was recommended only 6 hours before the landfall in Louisiana. This is because of the fact that previous forecasts did not indicate that Cindy would reach hurricane intensity. A Tropical Storm Warning was recommended 12 hours before landfall, which is the desired lead time. Two hours later when aircraft data indicated an intensifying storm, a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch was recommended. In addition to a lack of lead time, the coast appears to have been over-warned as Hurricane Warnings for Mississippi and Alabama proved to be unnecessary. The rapid weakening of Cindy across the marshes of SE Louisiana was not anticipated. For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report
Figure 1: Mean track and intensity forecast errors
